Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (January 2, 2025)
Too many people today think or believe that severely elevated prices are here to stay forever. Remember that absolutely nothing ever moves indefinitely in the same direction. The world now finds itself in a situation where prices for pretty much everything are unnaturally high – some people refer to this phenomenon as the “everything bubble.” Here is a recent Elliott Wave International video which talks about this subject: https://www.elliottwave.com/articles/when-does-the-boom-bust-cycle-begin/?rcn=241221freeez&utm_source=com&utm_medium=eml&utm_campaign=ar-frup&utm_content=frupbwmkboombustgmp241216.
People also forget that following every hyperinflation in history comes deflation which tends to be even more traumatic than the hyperinflation which preceded it. But one area where all of us yearn for a return to lower prices is at the local grocery store. Elliott Wave International of Atlanta has a recent article about this as well: https://www.elliottwave.com/articles/food-for-thought-about-deflation/?rcn=241221freeez&utm_source=com&utm_medium=eml&utm_campaign=ar-frup&utm_content=frupbsfood2412011.
Elliott Wave International points out that the American stock market recently had its first 10-day losing streak in 50 years:
With December 18th’s 1100-point loss, the Dow experienced its first 10-day losing streak in 50 years! Is that what the latest Financial Forecast meant by “Grand Supercycle” proportions?
Fluorescence is a physical transformation in which a substance absorbs light at one wavelength and emits it at another, longer wavelength. The term is used extensively in the hard sciences, “generally to analyze or track” biological molecules (Wikipedia). But the concept is also metaphorically applied to the social sciences, in situations where something hidden suddenly becomes visible under specific conditions. Just as life scientists use various techniques to extract the properties of light, the socionomist uses the lens of the Wave Principle to track the culmination of a trend in social mood. At the end of a Grand Supercycle degree peak, we find a fabulous array of previously disparate social entities. The emergence of what we call the equity culture is probably the broadest example. In prior times, these were separate social trends. In the late stages of a 200-year bull market, however, the upward flights of numerous social trends become intertwined as the manifestation of an extreme socio-psychological condition.
An equity culture is what happens at the end of the very largest bull markets, when the magnetism of rising share prices inundates the beliefs and behavior of society outside the normal purview of Wall Street. In our generation, its first arrival came at the end of Primary wave 3 in the first quarter of 2000. In September 2000, EWFF noted that the emerging trend was epitomized by the sudden appearance of athletes as investment gurus (see “All-Star Investors,” September 2000). As long as there is breath in the bull, the cultural cache of the stock market and finance in general will be on bright display. EWFF observed a full-blown return of the equity culture in March 2021, at the forefront of that year’s peaking speculative fervor for stocks. In April 2021, the trend reached new heights as sports stars rose to the helm of ambitious investment companies such as Slam Corporation. With a former New York Yankee baseball star calling the shots, Slam, a blank-check company, planned to acquire firms in order to win big in “sports, media, entertainment, health” and/or “wellness and consumer technology” industries. It turns out, however, running an investment company is different from running the bases. Slam, along with a host of other first-quarter-of-2021 highflyers, quickly flamed out. After topping in July 2021, Slam’s share price is down 94%. The Grand Supercycle degree of the current peaking process is symbolized by the equity culture’s latest escalation—direct investment in sports stars. To see the full extent of this “market,” just Google “invest in sport players.”
Here is a link to a thorough article posted on prepareforchange.net on December 22, 2024 – the author claims that we are now in the final stage of the “everything bubble” which is about to burst and crash to the ground: https://prepareforchange.net/2024/12/21/crash-incoming-this-is-what-the-final-stage-of-the-everything-bubble-looks-like/.
With respect to our political situation, the “lame duck” period between November 05 and January 20 is too long – this needs to be shortened. So much work must be done. Domestically, the temporary “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) led by both Elon Musk & Vivek Ramaswamy will seek to reduce the monstrosity of federal government agencies from the current 428 down to just 99. Incoming “Border Czar” Tom Homan will seek to deport millions of undocumented immigrants in the USA in an effort to reduce crime, to reduce the pressure on housing and to open employment opportunities for American citizens and legal immigrants alike. Yet another issue is the dire need for political office term limits beyond the Presidency, which may have to be imposed via executive order – the chance of Congress doing this on its own is slim at best. Beyond this Bobby Kennedy, Jr. has a huge and most important task to end the inflated power of the pharmaceutical industry and of the food processing industry both of whom continue to overly enrich themselves at the expense of public health and welfare.
On the international stage, war must end in both Eastern Europe and in the Middle East. Beyond this, war must never commence in East Asia. All war is bad and no war is good most especially for those military people killed in war and for civilians who reside in a war zone. It looks like Elon Musk (the wealthiest person on earth) has committed himself not merely to helping the Republican Party in the USA, but also the Reform Party in the UK and the Alternative for Germany Party all of whom need help to level the playing field in the face of the Deep State and the so-called mainstream media. Change will come as well in Canada (the Progressive Conservative Party to replace the Trudeau dynasty), Taiwan (reunification with mainland China for the first time since 1895) and Korea (reunification & and end to colonial rule for the first time since 1905).
Europe must wake up to the fact that Russia must not and cannot be seen as an enemy ever again. Russia and the Asian countries beyond her in Central, South and East Asia are necessary good neighbors and trading partners if Europe is ever to return to peace and prosperity. Ditto with the Middle East. Religious extremist of any brand is always bad, and the Holy Land and the Middle East must follow the example set by sub-Saharan & southern Africa of “one person, one vote” – the notable examples for Israel & Palestine being Kenya (British East Africa), Zambia (Northern Rhodesia), Mozambique (Portuguese East Africa), Angola (Portuguese West Africa), Zimbabwe-Rhodesia, Southwest Africa-Namibia and the Republic of South Africa.
The countries of East Asia & Southeast Asia must in turn see Mainland China as the countries of Europe must see Russia – as a good neighbor and as a necessary friend and trading partner in their effort to return to peace and prosperity.
Update on the Automotive Market
The “merger” between Honda (purchaser) and Nissan-Mitsubishi (being purchased) is nothing less than pressure from the Japanese government on the former (Honda) in an attempt to prevent the latter (Nissan-Mitsubishi) from going bankrupt. The hard truth is that all “legacy” automakers in Japan, South Korea (Hyundai-Kia), the USA (GM & Ford), Germany (VW, Mercedes & BMW), France (Renault) & Italy (Stellantis) are in a very marked decline. I do not mention the UK & Sweden because their largest auto brands are already owned by Chinese companies (MG-Rover and Volvo owned by SAIC and Geely, respectively). The news tells us that Nissan has had to cut global production by 25 percent, jobs by 8,000 employees and white collar compensation by a very significant amount – to “save” billions of Dollars which is still not enough to avert decline. Nissan’s global output & sales have contracted by 45 percent since 2017, Mitsubishi has declined by 34 percent since 2007 and even Honda has collapsed by 29 percent since their peak in 2018. This evolving picture reminds me so much of the history of the former American Motors Corporation and of the former Studebaker-Packard Corporation. Mainland China now comprises 35 percent of the worldwide motor vehicle market and 80 percent of all global electric vehicle production & sales – in which they dominate in technology, range and affordable retail pricing. The most accurate automotive industry observers / analysts now forecast that the entire global auto market (the entire pie) will shrink by half in less than one decade – in other words, struggling legacy automakers will likely no longer exist in less than ten short years from today………………….the millions of people they employ will have to seek alternative employment – ditto with the tens of millions of people who depend upon them in dealerships, distributorships, repair-maintenance shops, automotive parts stores, financing & supplier companies.
