Posts by Marc Nonnenkamp

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (October 1, 2025) The labor market is facing lethal headwinds not just due to the impending deflationary collapse (like the “Great Depression” from 1929 although it will be much more severe this time around) but due to the rise of “Artificial Intelligence” (AI).  Here is a video with a chilling message – forecasting global unemployment of not merely 10 percent but of a staggering 99 percent:  https://www.instagram.com/reel/DOK9DmVAFxC/?igsh=MTliNGVuOHB6NWV6Yg%3D%3D. As I said in my September 2025 monthly blog, the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” is a terrible mistake.  Many people who voted for both of the two major American political parties feel this way – this is not strictly a political issue.  Ideally the entire bill should be overturned, the tax cuts especially for corporations rescinded and the cuts in social programs restored to their previous levels.  The majority of the population depends upon the major entitlement programs for their basis sustenance and here I refer to the likes of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, the Affordable Healthcare Act (“Obamacare”) and SNAP (“Food Stamps”).  We are still at a point where the cost of living is rising and purchasing power is falling, so we are not yet at a point where these programs can be cut.  Furthermore it is a huge mistake to increase the military budget to USD $1 TRILLION – this should be cut by at least 90 percent.  We simply cannot afford this madness. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is no longer a fantasy.  It is real and it is already in the process of permanently displacing millions, tens of millions, hundreds of millions and eventually billions of workers all over the planet.  It is also helping to make the centi-billionaire, the deca-billionaire, the billionaire, centi-millionaire and deca-millionaire class ever wealthier and more powerful.  These are the…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (September 1, 2025) The recently passed so-called “big beautiful bill” has net interest payments on the national debt of the USA (federal government only – does not include state & local governments, nonprofit organizations or the so-called private economy of corporations and individuals) making up an incredible 18 percent of federal government revenues.  What is the rest?  Here it is: Social Security (31 percent), Medicare (18 percent), National Defense = War (17 percent), and Medicaid (13 percent).  This equals 97 percent.  There is actually much more in many smaller programs but we would go well over 100 percent due to the annual deficit = i.e., spending much more money than we have. What does this mean?  The Western Roman Empire fell in A.D. 476, the Eastern Roman Empire fell in 1453, the Aztec Empire fell in 1521, the Inca Empire fell in 1572, the Mexican Empire fell in 1867, the French Empire fell in 1870, the Korean Empire fell in 1910, the Tsarist Russian Empire fell in 1917, Austria-Hungary fell in 1918, the Prussian-German colonial empire fell in 1920, the Ottoman Turkish Empire fell in 1922, Nazi Germany fell in 1945, the Empire of Japan fell in 1947, the USSR collapsed in 1991 and the USA is not far off. Everyone should ignore the mouthpieces of the Administration in Washington, D.C. and the mainstream media.  This YouTube channel by Michael Bordenaro normally comes out of Florida where he lives.  This particular episode was recorded in Marin County, California but what he says about the current economy, employment market and real property market is one hundred percent factual and true:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rIXyAlkhRo&t=760s.  Things are extremely bad (not just somewhat bad or a little bad) and they are about to get very much worse. Yet another YouTube…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (August 1, 2025) The peak of the global real estate market likely happened during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021.  This was an entirely unnatural and unhealthy situation from many standpoints, especially the way it was handled by governments around the world.  In hindsight, social distancing, face masks, remote work from home, vaccine mandates and “stimulus” (printed money which went mainly to those in the top tier of the population) were all terrible ideas.  The stimulus and the remote work from home mandates in particular made people do things they never should have done.  In the case of the real estate market, people moved to places they never should have moved to in the first place. The payback time for these bad decisions is now upon us.  Nicholas Gerli of the “Reventure Consulting” channel seen on YouTube says that the first phase of the crash is with us now and he is entirely correct.  The property markets I follow specifically in New York, New Jersey, Virginia, Georgia, Arizona, New Mexico and California have already fallen by as much as 48 percent in value.  These markets include metro areas such as greater New York, Hampton Roads-Tidewater, Atlanta, Phoenix, Tucson, Santa Fe and the San Francisco Bay Area.  Keep in mind that we are merely in the first phase of this asset value collapse – we have yet to experience the second phase which will obliterate whatever happens to be left over.  Understand that the many real estate investment giants who “guestimate” values (such as Zillow, Realtor, Redfin, Xome, Trulia, etc.) already have so-called values over a very broad range – from pie-in-the-sky too high to rock bottom and below for cash on the barrel.  The current state of the economy (pretty much worldwide…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (July 1, 2025) Like it or not, the entire global financial system is now in the midst of a major multi-generational reset.  The world’s financial weight or center of financial power has been and continues to shift toward Asia – Mainland China, India, the ASEAN nations of Southeast Asia, the Middle East / Persian Gulf and Russia / Central Asia / Siberia.  A multipolar world is in the process of replacing the historical US dominance which goes back to 1944 when the USA replaced the UK as the number one global financial center of power.  The global dominance of the UK endured from 1588 to 1944.  The Royal Navy’s defeat of the Spanish Armada (navy) is the generally accepted milestone for this event.  The Roman Catholic powers of the Kingdom of Spain, the Kingdom of Portugal and the Frankish Kingdom (which eventually became the “Holy Roman Empire of the German Nation” which included much of modern day Central Europe) was the primary financial power (in the western world) before the British Empire.  This in no way minimizes the power or the accomplishments with great respect to the very advanced and even older civilizations / empires in Egypt and Mesopotamia / Iraq (the “Semites”), India, China (the great “Middle Kingdom”), the Inca Empire of South America and of course the great Aztec and Toltec Empires of Central America. One very positive sign amidst the debt, deficit, liquidity problems and fiat currency problems especially in the USA, Europe and Mainland China is the fact that gold bullion now represents an impressive 3.95 percent of all global financial assets.  This is happening in particular because gold reserves are being bolstered by Mainland China, Hong Kong (part of China), Dubai (part of the United Arab Emirates), Malaysia, Singapore,…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (June 1, 2025) The tariffs on retail consumer goods from Mainland China for sale on Amazon have added 17.46 percent to the total purchase price compared to the end of March 2025 before any tariffs were in place.  The tariffs were a sky-high 70 percent for a few weeks in April and May before the “agreement” with China.  It looks like goods from Europe (the European Union) may now be subject to very high 50 percent tariffs – they have been postponed only until early July 2025 pending talks and negotiations. The bond markets tell us that interest rates will rise largely because the US federal budget deficit continues to rise into the stratosphere as it has done for the past quarter century.  Even the “balanced budget” of 25 years ago was not really balanced – it merely “removed” the major entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare from the official calculation which is not an honest representation of the truth.  The last true “balanced budget” would take us back more than 50 years in time.  In any case, we are in one hell of mess. The geopolitical shenanigans of the American empire over the past years, decades and even centuries have finally motivated most of the rest of the world to move away from using the US Dollar as the primary means of monetary trade and from using the currency as the primary reserve currency just as the British Pound Sterling lost its status toward the end of World War Two with Bretton Woods in July 1944.  The rest of the world led by the BRICS, the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) and the Chinese BRI (Belt Road Initiative) are already well underway in abandoning the American Dollar.  They represent about 86 percent…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (May 1, 2025) The estimate for federal government layoffs from January 20 to February 28, 2025 = 331,780, for March 2025 = 280,000, for April 2025 and then US Army active duty reduction in force (RIF) = 90,000 = 701,780 job cuts thus far.  The pace of these cuts has slowed markedly during the month of April as they represent 27 percent of the full-time equivalent federal staff as of January 19, 2025.  Certain agencies with very intensive “retail customer” contact such as the US Post Office and the Social Security Administration should not be cut at all as they are so critical to so many people. About 75 percent of the federal budget is classified as “non-discretionary.”  Such items include interest on the federal debt, social security, Medicare, Medicaid and other “entitlement” programs such as disability, worker’s compensation, SNAP (“food stamps”), WIC and TANF.  The rest of the budget must come under scrutiny for massive reductions given the dire state of the finances of the USA – there is absolutely no room for “increase” in any other area. The current goal to cut the national defense budget by 40 percent in five (5) years is absolutely necessary and this should be increased to 50, 60, 70, 80 or even 90 percent to be cut.  America is broke and the American empire is falling – this is fact above any political party affiliation or preference.  All historical empires have risen and fallen and the USA is no exception.  At the end of the day, every empire should fall – they harm the interests of weaker and smaller peoples, cultures, ethnicities, races and countries worldwide (New world, Old world, Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere alike) and have done so for thousands of years of recorded…