Posts by Marc Nonnenkamp

The total global cryptocurrency market hit a record high market capitalization on November 10, 2021.  Bitcoin BTC and over 17,762 other privately launched electronic digital cryptocurrencies have been surging in value over the past decade.  They have already matured to a large degree, having replaced 85 percent of commercial and investment banks all over the world.  Traditional commercial and investment banks as we have come to know them over hundreds of years will likely cease to exist by the end of the first trimester (i.e., one-third) of 2022 – this is how rapidly things are changing over into the new digital financial system.  The cryptocurrency market reached a record high value on November 10, 2021, but it has lost 42 percent of its value since then.  Recent stock market activity points to an emerging stock market collapse – in particular an emerging high technology equity market collapse to rival or exceed that of the historical dot.com bust.  Here is a short interesting video from Elliott Wave International with respect to the emerging crash:  https://www.elliottwave.com/Social-Mood/5-Trends-We-re-Watching-Beyond-the-Markets-in-2022?rcn=220123socez&utm_source=com&utm_medium=eml&utm_campaign=ar-frup&utm_content=220123socez. We are all aware that most of the world is experiencing both hyperinflation and a shrinking labor pool.  There is an increasing amount of evidence which points to the emerging deflationary collapse which follows the hyperinflation – much like from 1923 to 1949, but much worse this time around.  The NASDAQ exchange has many more companies listed than either the blue chip Dow Jones 30 Industrials or than the S&P 500 Index, and one-third of the 3,554 companies listed on the NASDAQ have already lost a staggering 50 percent of their market value in merely ten (10) weeks. These 3,554 publicly listed corporations now comprise all publicly listed corporations in the entire USA – essentially the same demographic as the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index.  The…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (January 1, 2022) The total global cryptocurrency market hit a record high market capitalization on November 10, 2021.  Bitcoin BTC and over 16,694 other privately launched electronic digital cryptocurrencies have been surging in value over the past decade.  They have already matured to a large degree, having replaced 80 percent of commercial and investment banks all over the world.  Traditional commercial and investment banks as we have come to know them over hundreds of years will likely cease to exist by the end of the first trimester (i.e., one-third) of 2022 – this is how rapidly things are changing over into the new digital financial system.  The cryptocurrency market reached a record high value on November 10, 2021.  As of today, market capitalization is depressed, standing at 24 percent below the value reached on that date more than 7 weeks ago.  Nevertheless, many billionaires and millionaires continue to invest capital in the cryptocurrency market – hedging against the very likely probability of the ongoing collapse of fiat currencies. Just how bad is the current situation with respect to inflation?  There is nothing “transitory” about this inflation, unless of course we realize that we are transitioning into financial and economic oblivion.  More US American Dollars have been created or “printed” within the last 2 years than in all recorded history.  This equals a disaster – no ifs, ands or buts.  Mexico will launch its own national CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) in 2024 – such “governmental” digital currencies will make it even easier for national governments to hyper-inflate their own fiat currencies. In the 24-hour period of December 14 & 15, 2021 both Bitcoin BTC and Zcash ZEC registered severe price swings on certain exchanges, afterwards attributed to computer system “glitches.”  Nevertheless, Bitcoin BTC went…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (December 1, 2021) The total global cryptocurrency market hit a record high market capitalization on November 10, 2021.  Bitcoin BTC and over 15,516 other privately launched electronic digital cryptocurrencies have been surging in value.  They have already matured to a large degree, having replaced 74 percent of commercial and investment banks all over the world.  Traditional commercial and investment banks as we have come to know them over hundreds of years will likely cease to exist by the end of the first trimester (i.e., one-third) of 2022 – this is how rapidly things are changing over into the new digital financial system. Assuming that such currencies will replace all existing global paper fiat (government) currencies, Bitcoin BTC and other privately launched electronic digital cryptocurrencies have merely 198 fold left to increase in value.  This calculation assumes that financial derivative instruments will continue to survive in their current volume, which is entirely imprudent.  Financial derivative instruments can be thought of as “bets” which money center commercial and investment banks make upon the financial performance of anything and everything.  Why are they imprudent?  It would be like if you only had one Dollar to your name, but you promised to pay someone else 5 Dollars that you had no way of obtaining. If financial derivative instruments were removed from the picture, then the maximum remaining average upside potential for cryptocurrencies equals just 36 fold from where they stand today – this assuming that cryptocurrencies will completely replace all paper fiat (government) currencies.  The “window of opportunity” for people not yet invested in cryptocurrency is rapidly disappearing, and the remaining life span for the government paper fiat currencies is almost over. It is so sad to see happen and to say - it has been just 13…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (November 1, 2021) Events are taking place at an ever quicker pace.  For all intents and purposes, the American federal government is already bankrupt and has already defaulted on its so-called national debt.  Mainland China looks like it may soon militarily invade the island nation of Taiwan (the People’s Republic of China versus the Republic of China), and is recklessly using the term “World War 3.”  On October 5, 2021 it was reported that the US Treasury is preparing a possible USD One TRILLION coin – this makes the former German Weimar Republic look tame by comparison.  The US government is also planning its own Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). The total global cryptocurrency market hit a record high market capitalization on October 30, 2021.  Bitcoin BTC and over 13,861 other privately launched electronic digital cryptocurrencies have been surging in value.  They have already matured to a large degree, having replaced 66 percent of commercial and investment banks all over the world.  Assuming that such currencies will replace all existing global paper fiat (government) currencies, Bitcoin BTC and other privately launched electronic digital cryptocurrencies have merely 351 fold left to increase in value.  This calculation assumes that financial derivative instruments will continue to survive in their current volume, which is entirely imprudent.  Financial derivative instruments can be thought of as “bets” which money center commercial and investment banks make upon the financial performance of anything and everything.  Why are they imprudent?  It would be like if you only had one Dollar to your name, but you promised to pay someone else 5 Dollars that you had no way of obtaining. If financial derivative instruments were removed from the picture, then the maximum remaining average upside potential for cryptocurrencies equals just 64 fold from where…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (October 1, 2021) It is so sad to see happen and to have to say, but the USA today is collapsing much like the former USSR did in 1991.  We could be about one month away from a default on the US national debt, which will likely translate into a massive deflationary collapse following the current bout with hyperinflation.  The last time something like this happened in world history was between 1923 and 1949.  In 1923, a number of countries in Central Europe experienced hyperinflation due to the burdens placed upon them by the Treaty of Versailles (1919).  These countries included Germany, Austria, the Free City of Danzig and Poland.  Hyperinflation especially devastated the middle class.  These countries did try to recover after 1923, but the deflationary collapse of 1929 (the stock market crash) totally destroyed whatever progress they had made over the 6 year period from 1923 to 1929.  The deflationary collapse of 1929 was a worldwide phenomenon which was not even totally “cured” by the massive global deficit spending due to World War Two (1939 to 1945).  In the USA, stock prices, rents and real estate prices did not recover their 1929 nominal values until 1949 – 20 years after the fact. The emerging demographic collapse (which will eventually translate into a massive deflationary economic and financial collapse) evident in the USA is by no means confined to America – it is entirely global in its scope.  A recent poll of 45,000 major global employers found that 69 percent of them now have severe problems in filling positions (jobs).  Things are so bad that they are willing to hire inexperienced people and train them, which is very costly and time-consuming.  The situation will not get better – it will only get worse…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (September 1, 2021) 80 percent of Americans now pay $10 or less per month for health insurance (evidence of a highly subsidized price) whereas some people on the other end of the financial spectrum pay thousands of Dollars per month for the same type of health insurance.  This is yet another example of socialism wrecking the economy of the USA.  Healthcare in the USA is by far the most expensive in the world, but the end product is far from being the best – health in a number of other countries is actually quite a bit better. The government first entered the healthcare industry in a very big way in the USA upon the advent of Medicare in 1963.  Up to this time, healthcare in the USA was very affordable.  Most people visited a doctor’s office upon a walk-in basis with no appointment needed.  Most people paid for services in cash, which was very reasonably priced.  Women giving birth in hospitals would often stay until they were ready to return home – there was no pressure to leave as soon as possible.  Doctors even made house calls, visiting people in their homes.  Very few people had medical insurance.  People with medical insurance included those with long term health problems or those employed by larger employers such as the government and larger companies. The “goal” of socialist government is provide “free” and “universal” healthcare.  In truth, absolutely nothing is free.  Those who have to pay the bill are the ones who suffer the most.  And when a government spends too much money, the national currency becomes worthless – something we are experiencing first hand right now.  Furthermore, the end result will not be that everyone has good healthcare.  The end result will be that nobody…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (August 1, 2021) The cost of living, the rate of price inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) can be measured many ways.  One of the more accurate methods in the recent past has been to measure prices in terms of value of gold.  Doing so gives us a much higher rate of inflation (and a far worthless fiat currency) compared to traditional methods.  If we were to measure inflation in terms of the price of Bitcoin BTC since the advent of the Bitcoin BTC white paper in 2009, the result is far more devastating.  A consumer price index has been kept for the USA at least since the year 1700, or before the USA became an independent nation – when it was still a colony of England.  The CPI had a value of 130 in the year 1700, which decreased to an all-time record low of just 63 in the year 1739 – in other words, price deflation of 37 percent in the span of 39 years.  It is amazing to consider today, but that means that fiat money actually increased in value back then.  Compared to today, that sounds like paradise. The American CPI reached an index value of 100 by the year 1770, and the last time the index had a value of 100 was the year 1899.  The CPI did indeed fluctuate in between 1770 and 1899, but the net change in that 129 year time span was nothing at all.  Once again, it is amazing to consider that the US Dollar held its value so well back then. The CPI surpassed an index value of 200 by the year 1919 (right after the end of World War One), 300 by 1951 (during the Korean War), 400 by 1968 (during the…