2025

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (April 2, 2025) The USA has been effectively bankrupt for some time now – in other words, before the time of the current administration, its immediate predecessors, before the time of Barack Obama, and before the time of both Bush Presidencies.  The national debt of the USA (USD $36.6 TRILLION) and especially the off-balance sheet items including unfunded liabilities for pensions, social security, healthcare, Medicare, Medicaid and the like (USD $281.5 TRILLION) cannot be paid off in any “normal” way.  This will be done through a form of bankruptcy which must necessarily involve payment in the form of physical assets to the holders of debt. Even financially healthy companies and entities “downsize” with short term staff reductions of 30 percent or so.  What the US Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.) is doing is necessary and had to be done sooner or later – and better sooner rather than later.  Employment at the US Federal Government reached an all-time high in 1990 with a FTE (full time equivalent) civilian staff of 3.4 million employees.  The initial level of current reductions equal at least 331,780 individuals which include those not yet meeting one-year probation (200,000) and those accepting an early cash buyout – many of these people being already close to retirement (75,000 people).  Of the remaining 2,260,000 employees a reduction of 30 to 40 percent of this total will be “downsized” in the coming years  (this is the stated goal of D.O.G.E.).  The ripple effect in the general US economy due to government contracts paid outside of the government is a multiplier of 8.4 which equals a total sum of circa 8.5 million to 10.4 million jobs to be downsized in the public and “near public” sector of the economy. The entire US workforce of…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (March 1, 2025) The remaining, left-over, rump, vestige, liberal left-wing socialist woke DEI alliance consists of the following national or autonomous territorial governments in the “lackey” west:  Canada, Germany, South Korea, Poland, Portugal, Spain, the Ukraine, Albania, Norway, Denmark, Slovenia, Estonia, Australia, Taiwan, Romania (the left wing annulled a Presidential election here in December 2024 because they did not like how the Romanian people voted), Belgium, Switzerland, Puerto Rico, Moldova, Montenegro, Malta, the UK, France and Iceland = 24 governments = legal jurisdiction over 6.51 percent of the global population.  44.24 percent of the reported votes in these 24 jurisdictions are center or right-of-center. And many of these countries are very small.  The bigger “keys” here which will make the façade collapse include Canada, Germany (the CDU/CSU need to wake up and cease forming coalitions with the destructive Social Democrats and the ultra-destructive Greens), the Ukraine (the money to the corrupt dictator Zelensky and his side must end 100 percent), Taiwan (the west needs to stop this issue entirely and allow Taiwan and mainland China to work together as they choose), the UK (Keir Starmer was installed by Barack Hussein Obama before the latter’s power structure collapsed to the ground, and if the election were held today Nigel Farage & his Reform Party may likely succeed) and of course France (Emmanuel Macron stands a good chance of losing to Marine LePen in an honest electoral contest).  Here is a good video released by George Galloway of the UK.  George is a socialist, and I would never vote for socialism – but he an honest man with some good common sense:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acl_VTtWTXA. If the radical left retains political power in these areas, the respective countries and jurisdictions will merely continue to fall to the ground…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (February 1, 2025) The automotive industry has been one of the leading industries worldwide for almost 140 years.  It is now experiencing the biggest and most significant changes since then due to market over-saturation and excess production capacity (largely due to human demographic changes resulting in an ageing population and due to the over-use or abuse of credit financing) and due to the change into new technologies beyond the traditional internal combustion engine powered by crude oil products such as gasoline and diesel fuel. Companies based in mainland China and those selling their retail automotive products in China now comprise 35 percent of the global market with Chinese companies manufacturing and selling 80 percent of all electric vehicles in the world.  The entire global automotive market is forecast to contract (or shrink) by half in less than one decade or less than 10 years from today – perhaps as soon as just five (5) years from now.  A channel on YouTube which reports on this daily is called “the Electric Viking.” All of the so-called “legacy” automakers based in the USA, Japan, South Korea, Germany, France and Italy may not survive these changes.  The largest automakers in the UK (formerly MG-Rover) and in Sweden (Volvo Cars) are already owned by Chinese companies – by SAIC (Shanghai Automotive Industrial Corporation) and by Geely, respectively. This alarming phenomenon is not limited to the automotive industry and is also affecting major motorcycle manufacturers such as Kawasaki of Japan (down 23 percent in annual unit sales volume since their record year of 2019).  Suzuki of Japan manufactures passenger cars & trucks plus motorcycles – they have also experienced a sales decline although not as severe (down 4 percent since 2018).  Even one very large Chinese automaker has experienced…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (January 2, 2025) Too many people today think or believe that severely elevated prices are here to stay forever.  Remember that absolutely nothing ever moves indefinitely in the same direction.  The world now finds itself in a situation where prices for pretty much everything are unnaturally high – some people refer to this phenomenon as the “everything bubble.”  Here is a recent Elliott Wave International video which talks about this subject: https://www.elliottwave.com/articles/when-does-the-boom-bust-cycle-begin/?rcn=241221freeez&utm_source=com&utm_medium=eml&utm_campaign=ar-frup&utm_content=frupbwmkboombustgmp241216. People also forget that following every hyperinflation in history comes deflation which tends to be even more traumatic than the hyperinflation which preceded it.  But one area where all of us yearn for a return to lower prices is at the local grocery store.  Elliott Wave International of Atlanta has a recent article about this as well:  https://www.elliottwave.com/articles/food-for-thought-about-deflation/?rcn=241221freeez&utm_source=com&utm_medium=eml&utm_campaign=ar-frup&utm_content=frupbsfood2412011. Elliott Wave International points out that the American stock market recently had its first 10-day losing streak in 50 years:  With December 18th’s 1100-point loss, the Dow experienced its first 10-day losing streak in 50 years! Is that what the latest Financial Forecast meant by “Grand Supercycle” proportions? Fluorescence is a physical transformation in which a substance absorbs light at one wavelength and emits it at another, longer wavelength. The term is used extensively in the hard sciences, “generally to analyze or track” biological molecules (Wikipedia). But the concept is also metaphorically applied to the social sciences, in situations where something hidden suddenly becomes visible under specific conditions. Just as life scientists use various techniques to extract the properties of light, the socionomist uses the lens of the Wave Principle to track the culmination of a trend in social mood. At the end of a Grand Supercycle degree peak, we find a fabulous array of previously disparate social entities. The emergence of what we…