2025

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (February 1, 2025) The automotive industry has been one of the leading industries worldwide for almost 140 years.  It is now experiencing the biggest and most significant changes since then due to market over-saturation and excess production capacity (largely due to human demographic changes resulting in an ageing population and due to the over-use or abuse of credit financing) and due to the change into new technologies beyond the traditional internal combustion engine powered by crude oil products such as gasoline and diesel fuel. Companies based in mainland China and those selling their retail automotive products in China now comprise 35 percent of the global market with Chinese companies manufacturing and selling 80 percent of all electric vehicles in the world.  The entire global automotive market is forecast to contract (or shrink) by half in less than one decade or less than 10 years from today – perhaps as soon as just five (5) years from now.  A channel on YouTube which reports on this daily is called “the Electric Viking.” All of the so-called “legacy” automakers based in the USA, Japan, South Korea, Germany, France and Italy may not survive these changes.  The largest automakers in the UK (formerly MG-Rover) and in Sweden (Volvo Cars) are already owned by Chinese companies – by SAIC (Shanghai Automotive Industrial Corporation) and by Geely, respectively. This alarming phenomenon is not limited to the automotive industry and is also affecting major motorcycle manufacturers such as Kawasaki of Japan (down 23 percent in annual unit sales volume since their record year of 2019).  Suzuki of Japan manufactures passenger cars & trucks plus motorcycles – they have also experienced a sales decline although not as severe (down 4 percent since 2018).  Even one very large Chinese automaker has experienced…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (January 2, 2025) Too many people today think or believe that severely elevated prices are here to stay forever.  Remember that absolutely nothing ever moves indefinitely in the same direction.  The world now finds itself in a situation where prices for pretty much everything are unnaturally high – some people refer to this phenomenon as the “everything bubble.”  Here is a recent Elliott Wave International video which talks about this subject: https://www.elliottwave.com/articles/when-does-the-boom-bust-cycle-begin/?rcn=241221freeez&utm_source=com&utm_medium=eml&utm_campaign=ar-frup&utm_content=frupbwmkboombustgmp241216. People also forget that following every hyperinflation in history comes deflation which tends to be even more traumatic than the hyperinflation which preceded it.  But one area where all of us yearn for a return to lower prices is at the local grocery store.  Elliott Wave International of Atlanta has a recent article about this as well:  https://www.elliottwave.com/articles/food-for-thought-about-deflation/?rcn=241221freeez&utm_source=com&utm_medium=eml&utm_campaign=ar-frup&utm_content=frupbsfood2412011. Elliott Wave International points out that the American stock market recently had its first 10-day losing streak in 50 years:  With December 18th’s 1100-point loss, the Dow experienced its first 10-day losing streak in 50 years! Is that what the latest Financial Forecast meant by “Grand Supercycle” proportions? Fluorescence is a physical transformation in which a substance absorbs light at one wavelength and emits it at another, longer wavelength. The term is used extensively in the hard sciences, “generally to analyze or track” biological molecules (Wikipedia). But the concept is also metaphorically applied to the social sciences, in situations where something hidden suddenly becomes visible under specific conditions. Just as life scientists use various techniques to extract the properties of light, the socionomist uses the lens of the Wave Principle to track the culmination of a trend in social mood. At the end of a Grand Supercycle degree peak, we find a fabulous array of previously disparate social entities. The emergence of what we…