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Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (April 2, 2020) The subject of this month’s update is the worldwide coronavirus pandemic.  I am re-sharing a Facebook video which I have found extremely informative and helpful: https://www.facebook.com/jojo.borromeo.56/videos/1598183023671819/ The video was made by a medical doctor in the Philippines who is working on the “front line” of this very important battle.  He explains the need for quarantine, lock-down, social distancing and most especially the need to wear face masks.  We can even make our own masks using cloth (such as a handkerchief) tied with string.  The pluses of social distancing were proven 100 years ago during the worldwide Spanish influenza epidemic – political jurisdictions where social distancing was practiced significantly reduced the exponential growth rate of the pandemic.  Another point the doctor raises is that any epidemic will have to infect virtually every person on earth (most people will carry a disease but not become ill with it) to reach what is called “herd immunity.”  This is yet another reason for everyone to wear a face mask. Stock markets all over the world have lost a cumulative 23 percent since this crisis began.  The Dow Jones 30 Industrials Index has been down by as much as 39 percent from its record high nominal value 49 days ago.  Safewealth Group of Switzerland (which uses Elliott Wave forecasting techniques) has an eventual crash target level for the Dow Jones 30 Industrials Index of around 12,000 to 13,000. Many interest rates, including central bank key rates as well as some consumer CD savings rates (certificates of deposit) are now at zero or less.  The price of crude oil has collapsed by 86 percent since oil’s high value was reached in 2007-2008, and now hovers around USD $20 per barrel.  Some analysts believe that the price of…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (March 1, 2020) The globe is in the midst of a lethal pandemic which may be seen as a “black swan” (i.e., unforeseen) event which is collapsing markets and economic activity.  The US stock market has lost 17 percent of its value since the historic nominal record of February 12.   Real property values in the hottest (largely coastal) US markets are down by 15 percent.  Interest rate yields are already at historic lows for all of recorded human history.  Central banks will likely intervene in the markets very shortly by making rates even lower (many rates especially in Japan & Europe are already negative).  As I have said in the past, this is the modern day version of “printing” worthless fiat currency.  The worthless markets & paper fiat currencies will likely be replaced by electronic digital currencies backed by real precious metals, largely gold bullion.  Remember that the supply of precious metals and crypto-currencies is limited, which means that their values will eventually skyrocket. The subject of the March 2020 update reverts back to politics.  Our world today is plagued by challenging times and societal unrest.  When conditions are not as good, people are less patient and more demanding with respect to correcting wrongs from the past and present.   The examples I will use to illustrate this come from southern Africa, but these examples can be and should be applied to the entire world.  The gist of this message is that the overwhelming mass of the “have nots” in the world must be invited & allowed to partake in the political & economic system before it is too late…………..the way global events are unfolding, it may already be too late.  In any case, the alternative to political & economic inclusion is a society at…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (February 1, 2020) Nominal stock market and other major asset prices (i.e. real property) are at record high or fairly robust levels, but we must remember that the real purchasing value of most fiat currency has fallen dramatically – which makes nominal price records largely meaningless.  US equity prices are about 4 percent below their record nominal highs.  US real estate prices within the more robust regions (largely along the coasts) are roughly 12 percent below their record nominal values. The subject of February’s update returns to economics.  As we already too painfully know, the purchasing power of our money has declined tremendously, and it will continue to do so at an even greater rate compared to the past.  Furthermore, the income and wealth difference between the countries of the developed world and the countries of the developing world is getting smaller – a good thing which evens out the disparities of the past.  But interestingly, the income and asset value difference within certain countries especially in parts of the developed world are increasing at alarming rates.  Why is this taking place, and what does it mean? In the USA, the difference between the far more populated (and far more affluent) coasts and the much less populated & less affluent inland parts of America is becoming ever more pronounced.  These differences are noticeable as well within many of the 50 states.  The most affluent large metro areas in the USA include San Francisco-San Jose, Los Angeles, New York (including suburban New Jersey, Connecticut & Pennsylvania), Boston and the District of Columbia (including northern Virginia & suburban Maryland).  A good measure of cost and purchasing power is the salary required to purchase a home.  By this measure, the priciest metro area in the USA is…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (January 1, 2020) Happy New Year 2020 to all! The asset markets reached yet more “nominal” highs in December 2019, driven largely by the Central Bank’s relentless creation of yet more credit out of thin air – the modern version of printing worthless money.  The volume of this credit is a staggering USD $10 TRILLION since the middle of September 2019, done to shore up dried up liquidity in the global banking market.  The economy is quite frankly no longer a “real” economy.  99 percent of purchases are made on credit, interest rates are at artificially low levels (often near or below zero), the overwhelming majority of the population receives some sort of financial subsidy and almost nothing is being produced (no production of physical goods).  The population continues to implode due to collapsing demographics, which spells disaster.  An imploding population translates into an inverted (i.e. upside down) population pyramid, spelling eventual disaster for economic growth, asset values, tax collection, pensions, insurance and banking. When the credit bubble does finally burst, expect asset values (the stock markets and real estate values) as well as the consumer economy (automotive purchases and everything else) to fall to zero. The subject of this month’s update is the progress with the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), an all-important nuclear fusion power reactor located in Provence in southern France just 44 miles north of the coastal city of Marseilles.  Nuclear fusion power is the great promise of safe, efficient and affordable power generation for the future of the entire world, a source of power generation used by our sun and by all of the stars in the limitless universe.  35 countries representing 50 percent of humanity and 80 percent of global GDP are part of this huge project.  To…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (December 1, 2019) The subject matter I’ve chosen for our December update is regrettable, but necessary.  It has to do with the rise of the so-called extreme or far-right wing political movement, which has become as threatening today as it was in the very early 1930s – and this in numerous countries all over the world.  The extreme or far-right ideology gave our world its bloodiest wars (World Wars One and Two) and a similar type of tribalism gave the world the so-called Middle or “Dark” Age after the fall of the old Western Roman Empire in the 5th Century A.D – 1000 years of near zero growth accompanied by drastic declines in living standards, health, affluence and urban development.  One dangerous individual in the USA seeks to unite modern day extreme or far-right wing political parties into something that would be a neo-fascist international.  His name is Steve Bannon.  The parties he backs (or seeks to infiltrate with like-minded extreme or far-right wing individuals) share a common and very disturbing thread which includes nationalism, xenophobia, exclusion of certain groups of people based upon race, religion, national origin and more. Where are these political parties located and what have they or some of their officials & supporters said in the recent past which is so disturbing? These political parties include the likes of the National Rally of France (successor to the National Front which once claimed that Adolf Hitler did not “do enough”), Fidesz of Hungary (a formerly centrist party which has supporters who want to arm their fellow Hungarians against the long time Roma or Sinti minority – once called gypsies), the Northern League & Five Star Movement of Italy (who legally persecuted people when in power in Rome for assisting migrants and…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (November 1, 2019) Last month’s blog strayed from the usual monthly topics by updating my readership with respect to new information on our own Borromeo family genealogy.  This month’s blog will discuss more information concerning the unmistakable emerging global demographic collapse (incredibly, it is actually gaining momentum) and the economic & financial ramifications emanating from this phenomenon. I believe that the Philippines is very well positioned for the near future, but then again, ALL population groups on earth regardless of nationality, race, region, affluence, faith, location, language (or whatever other criteria) are either in declining growth or in an outright decline.  We can extend this worrisome trend to much of the natural world as well – wild animals including mammals, birds (an alarming 30 percent decline since 1970), fish, pollinating insects and so forth.  The disturbing trend in the natural world is due to loss of habitat, deforestation, over-hunting, so called “sport” hunting which should cease outright, genetic modification, abuse of toxic chemicals and the massive pollution of the oceans, lakes and rivers especially with plastics. After the disaster of the Ferdinand Marcos years (1965 to 1986), the Philippines went from being the 2nd richest per capita nation in Asia after Japan to being among the poorest above countries such as those in Indo-China and Papua New Guinea.  The Philippines has made tremendous progress since 1986, seeing its per capita GDP rise from about USD $600 to USD $10,000 in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).  In spite of declining fertility rates, birth rates and smaller families, the Philippines continues to enjoy one of the most rapid population growth rates on earth – important to maintaining robust economic growth and in order to fund pension programs and other social programs.  The Philippines today has…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (October 1, 2019) The topic for the October 2019 has to do with our own Borromeo family in the Philippines.  Rusty, his wife Susie and I work together to run our two sites (the main site for the family plus the separate site dedicated to the monthly blog) as well as our 3 respective Facebook pages.  We’re connected to more than 3,600 individuals via Facebook, 67 percent of whom belong to the extended worldwide Borromeo family.  Add to this more than 1,400 people connected to us via Instagram (a Facebook subsidiary company) or via e-mail, 400 more individuals via LinkedIn and 100 plus people via Skype.  Our websites have received more than 1.5 million hits from visitors in 196 countries since we went live in November of 2006 (my nephew Matthew runs the technical side of these sites).  I’ve published 11 books since 2010, 3 of which are about Volkswagen, the car company based in Germany.  I am the number one community poster on the worldwide VW Facebook page, which has over 34 million followers. Now back to the important news regarding the Borromeo family.  Prior to the Second World War in the Philippines (December 1941 – September 1945), my maternal grandfather’s best friend and first degree cousin Marcial Borromeo y Guerrero completed a genealogy of the family which established that the first Borromeo in the Philippines settled in Cavite City on Luzon in 1744 by way of Canton (Guangzhou) in China.  Successive generations settled in Iloilo City (on Panay) in 1769, in Tanjay City on Negros in 1794 and finally in Cebu City in 1819.  The records of this genealogy were lost or destroyed during the violence of the Second World War, as was much else.  For example, both the ancestral homes of…