Monthly Updates

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (October 1, 2022) The issue of hyperinflation is so serious that the central banks of the world need to tighten credit interest rates (i.e. raise interest rates) much faster & higher than they have been.  The US federal government’s officially admitted annual inflation rate of 8 to 9 percent is far below the true honest rate of inflation which when one looks at prices for fuel, energy, food & groceries must be more like 20, 30 or 40 percent per annum over the past 2 to 3 years.  Asset values for real property & corporate stock also remain far above their true honest levels.  The solution to this unacceptable situation must be to raise interest rates above & beyond the rates we remember from early 1981, when the highest paying retail certificates of time deposits were paying from 20 to 22 percent per annum.  I would say that the central bank’s key rate should be no lower than 19 percent per annum right now, because defending the value of the currency should be the only concern at this time.  Every single country on earth has a lower standard of living today & all peoples have far weaker purchasing power today than they did at certain points in the past. As of September 30, 2022 the overall US stock market has lost 37 percent of its nominal value since November 2021 to January 2022 depending upon the index.  The digital currency market has lost 68 percent of its nominal value since November 10, 2021. The entire world today has become like one big third world country, with a dying middle class, an exploding under class and very few corrupt people at the top controlling governments, politicians, the media, entertainment and large corporations.  Europe peaked before…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (July 1, 2022) Elliott “waves” are often very difficult to predict, most especially with respect to “timing” and “degree” or “magnitude” (i.e. length and duration).  That said, I believe I can now state that the long-awaited generational “crash” commenced on November 10, 2021.  We can compare this to the horrific hyperinflation, asset price collapse and world war that took place from 1922 to 1949 – but this time it will be much worse.  The nominal asset price collapse which took place from 1929 to 1949 (yes, it took a whopping 20 years or 2 decades for nominal prices to recover) wiped out an astounding 89 percent of peak nominal value from 1929 until 1933 (the nadir of the financial-economic crash at that time).  This time around, I believe that we will hit rock bottom in the year 2033 (11 years from today) and that our by then much smaller and severely decimated world will have to rebuild from the ground up, from “ground zero” so to speak – we will be very close to “rock bottom” long before 2033 (Nick Gerli of Reventure Consulting says late 2022 and into 2023……………he reported on June 17 that lumber prices have crashed by 50 percent in the last 3 months!), but we will remain at “rock bottom” until 2033.  Elliott Wave International of Atlanta, Georgia believes that the worst bear market in recorded history will take place from 2022 to 2024.  I believe that the “you know what” will hit the fan worldwide no later than the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2022………………..by September 30, 2022.  The economy of North America & Europe have already collapsed for all intents & purposes.  The bulk of global asset market trading is already done via “aladdin” Artificial Intelligence and…

The total global cryptocurrency market hit a record high market capitalization on November 10, 2021.  Bitcoin BTC and over 19,729 other privately launched electronic digital cryptocurrencies have been surging in value over the past decade.  They have already matured to a large degree, having replaced 94 percent of commercial and investment banks all over the world.  Traditional commercial and investment banks as we have come to know them over hundreds of years will likely cease to exist in the very near future – this is how rapidly things are changing over into the new digital financial system.  The cryptocurrency market reached a record high value on November 10, 2021, but it has lost 41 percent of its value since then. 4 of the 5 FAANG stocks (the titans of American high technology) are already in a bear market.  The 5 FAANG stocks are 1) Meta Platforms, Inc. (FB or Facebook down by 48 percent from its record high), 2) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN down by 34 percent), 3) Apple, Inc. (AAPL down by 14 percent), 4) Netflix, Inc. (NFLX down by 73 percent) and 5) Alphabet, Inc. (GOOG or Google down by 24 percent).  The minimum description of a bear market is to be down by 10 percent.  The aggregate US stock market, best represented by the NASDAQ Composite Index, is down by 24 percent since November 22, 2021. Recent stock market activity points to an emerging asset market collapse – the noise coming out of the real estate market is demonstrating this by the day.  Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) which are forecast to replace existing national paper fiat currencies will likely be even more inflationary, and even worse than that, they will remove all remaining financial liberty.  Governments will have the ability to determine who spends how much, on…

The total global cryptocurrency market hit a record high market capitalization on November 10, 2021.  Bitcoin BTC and over 19,145 other privately launched electronic digital cryptocurrencies have been surging in value over the past decade.  They have already matured to a large degree, having replaced 91 percent of commercial and investment banks all over the world.  Traditional commercial and investment banks as we have come to know them over hundreds of years will likely cease to exist in the very near future – this is how rapidly things are changing over into the new digital financial system.  The cryptocurrency market reached a record high value on November 10, 2021, but it has lost 27 percent of its value since then.  Recent stock market activity points to an emerging asset market collapse – the noise coming out of the real estate market is demonstrating this by the day.  Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) which are forecast to replace existing national paper fiat currencies will likely be even more inflationary, and even worse than that, they will remove all remaining financial liberty.  Governments will have the ability to determine who spends how much, on what goods & services, and by what time – i.e. money with an expiration date.  Privately launched cryptocurrencies are an attempt to preserve financial liberty by those who own them, but most of them cannot and will not survive.  Case in point: 19,146 cryptocurrencies now exist, of which only 9,847 are big enough to be even traded on an exchange.  A mere 96 coins have a face value of at least one American cent.  Bitcoin BTC is by far the oldest and biggest of these, and it also exists in “stock market” form in the likes of GBTC – the Grayscale Trust, which trades a number of the…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (March 1, 2022) The total global cryptocurrency market hit a record high market capitalization on November 10, 2021.  Bitcoin BTC and over 18,368 other privately launched electronic digital cryptocurrencies have been surging in value over the past decade.  They have already matured to a large degree, having replaced 87 percent of commercial and investment banks all over the world.  Traditional commercial and investment banks as we have come to know them over hundreds of years will likely cease to exist by the end of the first trimester (i.e., one-third) of 2022 – this is how rapidly things are changing over into the new digital financial system.  The cryptocurrency market reached a record high value on November 10, 2021, but it has lost 35 percent of its value since then.  Recent stock market activity points to an emerging stock market collapse – in particular an emerging high technology equity market collapse to rival or exceed that of the historical dot.com bust. The digital currency market is already much more mature than people realize.  Here is where we stand right now: 114 million people own cryptocurrency.  300 million people use cryptocurrency for transactions, and 261 million people in China already use the digital Yuan CBDC for retail purposes = 561 million minimum retail digital currency users worldwide.  9 countries including China already have a live CBDC available for retail use.  The combined human population of these 9 countries (which include the likes of Mainland China, India and Nigeria) is 3,085,500,000 people. Interest rates have already begun to rise, especially for loans.  This trend is not yet visible in retail interest rates for traditional commercial bank savings accounts, but staking rewards for cryptocurrencies (including those for stablecoins which do not fluctuate much in value unlike most very…

The total global cryptocurrency market hit a record high market capitalization on November 10, 2021.  Bitcoin BTC and over 17,762 other privately launched electronic digital cryptocurrencies have been surging in value over the past decade.  They have already matured to a large degree, having replaced 85 percent of commercial and investment banks all over the world.  Traditional commercial and investment banks as we have come to know them over hundreds of years will likely cease to exist by the end of the first trimester (i.e., one-third) of 2022 – this is how rapidly things are changing over into the new digital financial system.  The cryptocurrency market reached a record high value on November 10, 2021, but it has lost 42 percent of its value since then.  Recent stock market activity points to an emerging stock market collapse – in particular an emerging high technology equity market collapse to rival or exceed that of the historical dot.com bust.  Here is a short interesting video from Elliott Wave International with respect to the emerging crash:  https://www.elliottwave.com/Social-Mood/5-Trends-We-re-Watching-Beyond-the-Markets-in-2022?rcn=220123socez&utm_source=com&utm_medium=eml&utm_campaign=ar-frup&utm_content=220123socez. We are all aware that most of the world is experiencing both hyperinflation and a shrinking labor pool.  There is an increasing amount of evidence which points to the emerging deflationary collapse which follows the hyperinflation – much like from 1923 to 1949, but much worse this time around.  The NASDAQ exchange has many more companies listed than either the blue chip Dow Jones 30 Industrials or than the S&P 500 Index, and one-third of the 3,554 companies listed on the NASDAQ have already lost a staggering 50 percent of their market value in merely ten (10) weeks. These 3,554 publicly listed corporations now comprise all publicly listed corporations in the entire USA – essentially the same demographic as the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index.  The…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (January 1, 2022) The total global cryptocurrency market hit a record high market capitalization on November 10, 2021.  Bitcoin BTC and over 16,694 other privately launched electronic digital cryptocurrencies have been surging in value over the past decade.  They have already matured to a large degree, having replaced 80 percent of commercial and investment banks all over the world.  Traditional commercial and investment banks as we have come to know them over hundreds of years will likely cease to exist by the end of the first trimester (i.e., one-third) of 2022 – this is how rapidly things are changing over into the new digital financial system.  The cryptocurrency market reached a record high value on November 10, 2021.  As of today, market capitalization is depressed, standing at 24 percent below the value reached on that date more than 7 weeks ago.  Nevertheless, many billionaires and millionaires continue to invest capital in the cryptocurrency market – hedging against the very likely probability of the ongoing collapse of fiat currencies. Just how bad is the current situation with respect to inflation?  There is nothing “transitory” about this inflation, unless of course we realize that we are transitioning into financial and economic oblivion.  More US American Dollars have been created or “printed” within the last 2 years than in all recorded history.  This equals a disaster – no ifs, ands or buts.  Mexico will launch its own national CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) in 2024 – such “governmental” digital currencies will make it even easier for national governments to hyper-inflate their own fiat currencies. In the 24-hour period of December 14 & 15, 2021 both Bitcoin BTC and Zcash ZEC registered severe price swings on certain exchanges, afterwards attributed to computer system “glitches.”  Nevertheless, Bitcoin BTC went…