Monthly Updates

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (August 1, 2020) The stock market indices continue to remain near record high nominal values despite the fact of very few companies remaining profitable and GDP down by as much as 55 percent as of June 5th (per the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank).  When reality sets in, expect both the equity and real estate markets to drop to near zero.  30 percent of Americans failed to pay their monthly mortgage debt in June – which now exceeds the percentage of the US labor force laid off since the start of the pandemic (54 million Americans already having filed for first time unemployment benefits = 32 percent of the 167 million people in the US labor force at the start of the pandemic).  According to a study by the University of California at Santa Cruz, up to 66 percent of businesses in the USA have shut down permanently since February 2020.  80 percent of Americans are now paying only part or none of their monthly debt servicing obligations according to the NSA (National Security Agency).  60 percent of all restaurants in the USA have shut permanently since March 2020 according to a survey done by www.yelp.com. The largest pension fund on earth is the Japanese government pension fund, and it lost 11 percent of its value in the first quarter of 2020.  Pensions worldwide (regardless of country) are in a similar predicament.  Remember that most equity funds consistently UNDERPEFORM the general stock market indices – this has been the case for decades – so much for “professional” management.  The German auto market was off by 35 percent in June 2020, but the Chinese auto market (the largest market on earth) has seen record sales for the past 2 months and is now selling new vehicles…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (July 1, 2020) The subject of this month’s update is the apparent fall of the “American empire.”  America has likely never been as dysfunctional as it is today, which is represented by its utter lack of leadership on the national level.  Whatever the outcome of its national election in November 2020, America needs to rejoin the global community of nations in a fully functional manner and the world as a whole needs to work together, to cooperate, to make this world work and function much better and much more fairly & morally for all of its inhabitants, be they human or otherwise.  According to one of the regional Federal Reserve Banks, US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has collapsed by 52 percent since the Covid 19 pandemic began – significantly worse than during the Great Depression of 1929-1941.  And the Federal Reserve is now bailing out more companies than banks, insurers, automakers – incredibly, they are now pumping money into the likes of AT&T, Walmart, Apple Computer and even the distiller Jack Daniel’s.  If even Walmart and Apple need to be bailed out, America is doomed. Official job losses equal 45 million (27 percent of the labor force).  When one includes those partially furloughed or with pay cuts, this jumps to almost 100 million people.  31 percent of Americans have stopped paying or are now behind on their bills, health insurance and debt payments.  47 percent of small businesses in the USA anticipate closing PERMANENTLY (from a survey taken by Alzo, a financial services company) – this includes 85 percent of independently owned restaurants.  As small businesses in the USA still employ 58.9 million people today (after the loss of 43 million jobs due to the pandemic) this would add yet another 27,683,000 Americans to…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (June 1, 2020) This month’s update will try to make some sense of all the turmoil taking place today.  I have often written about a very widespread global demographic collapse.  The pandemic did not cause this, but it is adding to it.  Furthermore, any pandemic is yet another manifestation of negative social mood – people are not at ease, and therefore their health suffers.  Many countries have actually done a good job of containing the pandemic.  The USA has not (it is among the most infected on a per capita basis) and on top of this problem it now faces violent protests and riots in over 140 of its cities from coast to coast – evidence of a profound societal dysfunction………..the society has simply ceased to function.  The stock market is utterly disconnected from this morbid reality, but as we shall see, nominal “money” in the USA has little or no real value left. In any case, it looks like global population has been declining in the recent past and that it will continue to decline in the foreseeable future.  One very interesting site which quantifies this in clear terms is “Deagle.”  Deagle is a site dedicated mainly to update us on global military weapons system, be they for land forces, naval forces or air forces.  One of their internal links has very detailed data for global population, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), annual military budgets and per capita GDP in terms of PPP (Purchasing Power Parity).  The first set of figures is actual data for 209 countries in 2017, the second set of figures is for 183 countries forecast for 2025, or a mere 4 years from today: http://www.deagel.com/country/forecast.aspx. Their global population forecast for 2025 is 6,827,253,938 – or what it was a decade…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (May 1, 2020) The subject of this month’s update is a follow-up to last month’s topic analyzing the emerging economic collapse and fallout from the global pandemic.  Much of the world’s economy remains intentionally shut down in an effort to slow the growth of the pandemic, and repercussions remain huge.  At least 100 countries have asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a financial bailout.  In the USA, the annual federal government budget deficit exceeds USD $4 TRILLION and the official national debt has surpassed USD $25 TRILLION.  Keep in mind that the US national debt does not include “off balance sheet” unfunded liability items such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, which in sum surpass the rest of debt.  The massive USD $2 TRILLION stimulus package has already been spent in the sense that so many people remain without gainful employment.  Business Insider estimates that fewer than half of Americans will have a paycheck in the month of May.  One in six Americans have already filed for unemployment benefits, and 40 percent of families have trouble putting food on the table.  In much of the rest of the world, especially in the very populous developing world, the situation is worse than this. These massive sums of money can never and should not be paid back for the simple reason that most of the world’s debt has been “created” out of thin air by the central banks of the world, which are owned by the world’s commercial banks, which in turn are owned by the most powerful families in recorded history.  The sum of money “printed” to date is astronomical, and a number of indebted entities are even deeper in the hole than the US federal government.  Who are they? European Union (EU) pension…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (April 2, 2020) The subject of this month’s update is the worldwide coronavirus pandemic.  I am re-sharing a Facebook video which I have found extremely informative and helpful: https://www.facebook.com/jojo.borromeo.56/videos/1598183023671819/ The video was made by a medical doctor in the Philippines who is working on the “front line” of this very important battle.  He explains the need for quarantine, lock-down, social distancing and most especially the need to wear face masks.  We can even make our own masks using cloth (such as a handkerchief) tied with string.  The pluses of social distancing were proven 100 years ago during the worldwide Spanish influenza epidemic – political jurisdictions where social distancing was practiced significantly reduced the exponential growth rate of the pandemic.  Another point the doctor raises is that any epidemic will have to infect virtually every person on earth (most people will carry a disease but not become ill with it) to reach what is called “herd immunity.”  This is yet another reason for everyone to wear a face mask. Stock markets all over the world have lost a cumulative 23 percent since this crisis began.  The Dow Jones 30 Industrials Index has been down by as much as 39 percent from its record high nominal value 49 days ago.  Safewealth Group of Switzerland (which uses Elliott Wave forecasting techniques) has an eventual crash target level for the Dow Jones 30 Industrials Index of around 12,000 to 13,000. Many interest rates, including central bank key rates as well as some consumer CD savings rates (certificates of deposit) are now at zero or less.  The price of crude oil has collapsed by 86 percent since oil’s high value was reached in 2007-2008, and now hovers around USD $20 per barrel.  Some analysts believe that the price of…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (March 1, 2020) The globe is in the midst of a lethal pandemic which may be seen as a “black swan” (i.e., unforeseen) event which is collapsing markets and economic activity.  The US stock market has lost 17 percent of its value since the historic nominal record of February 12.   Real property values in the hottest (largely coastal) US markets are down by 15 percent.  Interest rate yields are already at historic lows for all of recorded human history.  Central banks will likely intervene in the markets very shortly by making rates even lower (many rates especially in Japan & Europe are already negative).  As I have said in the past, this is the modern day version of “printing” worthless fiat currency.  The worthless markets & paper fiat currencies will likely be replaced by electronic digital currencies backed by real precious metals, largely gold bullion.  Remember that the supply of precious metals and crypto-currencies is limited, which means that their values will eventually skyrocket. The subject of the March 2020 update reverts back to politics.  Our world today is plagued by challenging times and societal unrest.  When conditions are not as good, people are less patient and more demanding with respect to correcting wrongs from the past and present.   The examples I will use to illustrate this come from southern Africa, but these examples can be and should be applied to the entire world.  The gist of this message is that the overwhelming mass of the “have nots” in the world must be invited & allowed to partake in the political & economic system before it is too late…………..the way global events are unfolding, it may already be too late.  In any case, the alternative to political & economic inclusion is a society at…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (February 1, 2020) Nominal stock market and other major asset prices (i.e. real property) are at record high or fairly robust levels, but we must remember that the real purchasing value of most fiat currency has fallen dramatically – which makes nominal price records largely meaningless.  US equity prices are about 4 percent below their record nominal highs.  US real estate prices within the more robust regions (largely along the coasts) are roughly 12 percent below their record nominal values. The subject of February’s update returns to economics.  As we already too painfully know, the purchasing power of our money has declined tremendously, and it will continue to do so at an even greater rate compared to the past.  Furthermore, the income and wealth difference between the countries of the developed world and the countries of the developing world is getting smaller – a good thing which evens out the disparities of the past.  But interestingly, the income and asset value difference within certain countries especially in parts of the developed world are increasing at alarming rates.  Why is this taking place, and what does it mean? In the USA, the difference between the far more populated (and far more affluent) coasts and the much less populated & less affluent inland parts of America is becoming ever more pronounced.  These differences are noticeable as well within many of the 50 states.  The most affluent large metro areas in the USA include San Francisco-San Jose, Los Angeles, New York (including suburban New Jersey, Connecticut & Pennsylvania), Boston and the District of Columbia (including northern Virginia & suburban Maryland).  A good measure of cost and purchasing power is the salary required to purchase a home.  By this measure, the priciest metro area in the USA is…