Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (July 1, 2022)
Elliott “waves” are often very difficult to predict, most especially with respect to “timing” and “degree” or “magnitude” (i.e. length and duration). That said, I believe I can now state that the long-awaited generational “crash” commenced on November 10, 2021. We can compare this to the horrific hyperinflation, asset price collapse and world war that took place from 1922 to 1949 – but this time it will be much worse. The nominal asset price collapse which took place from 1929 to 1949 (yes, it took a whopping 20 years or 2 decades for nominal prices to recover) wiped out an astounding 89 percent of peak nominal value from 1929 until 1933 (the nadir of the financial-economic crash at that time). This time around, I believe that we will hit rock bottom in the year 2033 (11 years from today) and that our by then much smaller and severely decimated world will have to rebuild from the ground up, from “ground zero” so to speak – we will be very close to “rock bottom” long before 2033 (Nick Gerli of Reventure Consulting says late 2022 and into 2023……………he reported on June 17 that lumber prices have crashed by 50 percent in the last 3 months!), but we will remain at “rock bottom” until 2033. Elliott Wave International of Atlanta, Georgia believes that the worst bear market in recorded history will take place from 2022 to 2024. I believe that the “you know what” will hit the fan worldwide no later than the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2022………………..by September 30, 2022. The economy of North America & Europe have already collapsed for all intents & purposes. The bulk of global asset market trading is already done via “aladdin” Artificial Intelligence and not by human beings…………………the die has already been cast. Here is an interesting image from Elliott Wave International showing the current market as represented by a graph. The “You Are Here” arrow at the peak of the market was January 2022 by their estimate. To me, this looks like part of a massive “head and shoulders” pattern, with the crash currently in its infancy. One thing to keep in mind is that bear market rallies are very deceptive – they lure people back into the market, only to be clobbered even worse when crash waves return:
I believe that the nominal asset value loss from 2020 to 2033 (a period of 13 years) will be circa 99 percent. That is my financial forecast without any sugar coating. The cryptocurrency market reached a record high value on November 10, 2021, but it has lost 70 percent of its value since then (73 percent loss reached on June 18, 2022), with no net increase since December of 2017 – or 4 ½ years ago. High technology stocks are down 64 percent (high tech market cap down by 87 percent), IPOs (initial public offerings on the stock market) are down by 70 percent and the overall American stock market is down by 33 percent in the same time period. There are merely 401 traditional “brick and mortar branch” commercial banking holding companies left in the world today, and this number is shrinking rapidly.
Governments all over the world are pushing (forcing) a change from largely gasoline and diesel powered motor vehicles into so-called BEV “battery electric vehicles.” The alleged excuse for this switch is environmental – i.e. so-called “global warming” and/or “climate change.” As with everything else being pushed by the global power establishment today, the public is not being told the truth. The so-called changes happening have nothing to do with so-called “fossil fuels” or “carbon emissions.” Firstly, change is constant, often very marked, and almost always beyond the control of mere mortal beings. The earth experienced massive climate changes when the dinosaurs became extinct, and again much more recently in the Middle Ages, but as we know factories and motor vehicles did not even exist during those times. Crude oil, natural gas and coal were also not in any measurable use.
That said, BEV “battery electric vehicles” comprise about one percent of the vehicle population on earth today. The materials needed to make their lithium batteries are already destroying the natural environment in countries such as Chile, Bolivia and the Congo (the Congo is one of the largest countries in Africa). This harvesting of these materials is also destroying the natural habitat of flamingo birds in Chile and Bolivia in South America, and thus wiping out these beautiful birds.
A much better choice would be hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, which use hydrogen to power their unique batteries. First of all, hydrogen is plentiful (the most common element on earth) – it can be produced anywhere from its primary substance which is water. Second, there would be no problem of costly and especially time-consuming “recharging,” which also requires a massive & costly infrastructure not yet in place. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are simply refueled at existing gasoline stations, which would merely have to be equipped with hydrogen fuel pumps – they look very similar to gasoline or diesel pumps. Hydrogen is also better than ethanol, because ethanol uses corn grain in much of the world, which cuts into the food supply for human beings and especially farm animals. Other types of ethanol require sugar cane (South America) or palm leaves (Asia). If the enforced move into the BEV “battery electric vehicle” fails, and if the market moves in the direction of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle instead, just two (2) automotive companies are ready to benefit from this – Toyota of Japan and Hyundai of South Korea. Toyota owns the brand names of Toyota, Lexus, Daihatsu, Subaru and Hino. Hyundai owns the brand names of Hyundai, Kia, Genesis and Ioniq. If and when the automotive industry makes the correct move into hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, the remaining manufacturers will not likely be able to raise the necessary capital to make the move – in other words, they may not survive in the longer term. Why is this so? Because they have already spend or committed too much capital into the BEV “battery electric vehicle” – a cumulative circa USD $4.6 TRILLION, and the necessary capital to make the switch into hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will simply no longer exist in the global market.
