Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (May 1, 2023)
There are important signs that the both economic-financial and the geopolitical fronts of the western world are starting to buckle (i.e. collapse) in a significant way. Both the seaports on the east coast of the USA (the largest being Norfolk, Virginia) and on the west coast of the USA (the largest being Long Beach, California) are unusually and abnormally quiet. The main reason for this is that consumer demand is weakening by the day – the resources of the consumer have been spent and there is not much left in reserve. Consumer spending comprises 70 percent of GDP or Gross Domestic Product.
Major retailers like Walmart are closing stores in big cities or even pulling out altogether – specific examples include Chicago, Illinois and Portland, Oregon, respectively. Target is planning major staff (or paid hour) reductions in employment. Kroger (the 2nd largest supermarket grocery store chain in the USA) just announced miserable results for the most recent quarter as did D.R. Horton (the largest homebuilder in the USA). Cumulative job cuts at large corporations have reached almost one-half million employees, the biggest number of these coming from Amazon.com. Inflation and an already very high cost of living remain serious problems – the latest annually adjusted figure out of the United Kingdom is 10 percent………………….and we all know that the real numbers are far worse than the “official” numbers regardless of country. 44 percent of US workers are working two or more jobs – not by choice but by necessity.
39 percent of American households have actually skipped a meal to afford their house payments – in households headed by young adults this figure is an astounding 44 percent. 14 percent of American homes are now vacant (along with 50 percent of American commercial real estate – proving that we have a severe oversupply of existing developed real property). The world record for vacant housing is in Japan at a whopping 33 percent due to a very old demographic – a rapidly ageing population with too many older people and not enough younger people (not enough births). And by the way, interest rates (the cost of borrowing money) is not too high – they remain too low proven by the fact that our cost of living remains far too high…………………prices remain too high / too inflated. Here is a good Elliott Wave International video on the history of interest rates going back a short period of just 70 years to the 1950s: https://www.elliottwave.com/Interest-Rates/A-Seven-Decade-Chart-of-Interest-Rate-Spikes-and-Crises-Here-We-Go-Again?utm_source=com&utm_medium=eml&utm_campaign=ar-cotd&utm_content=cotdrfintratespikes240412. The money supply has already fallen more than at any time since the Great Depression, which is still more evidence that we are on the cusp of a deflationary collapse to take place immediately following our experience with high inflation (see the graph below which goes back to the year 1870):
On the geopolitical front, the US Dollar continues to lose its status as the dominant reserve currency which it has held since 1944. Countries throughout Asia, Africa, and Latin America are moving away from the US Dollar, from the USA, and toward the BRICS alliance (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Mainland China’s Belt-Road Initiative. The first major “crack” in the western front line is France, which has stated its will to move away from the USA and toward China – this is also having a direct influence on western military support for the highly dangerous and futile Ukraine war directed against Russia. Once Germany cracks, Europe will become impotent. Germany has been, remains and will continue to be Europe’s locomotive, corner-stone and center of power. Without Germany, there is no Europe.
Contrary to what the corrupt governments in the west parrot, there is no need for “regime change” in eastern countries such as Russia or China. The need for “regime change” is in the USA, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and in virtually all of Europe. The powers that be in the western world are clearly pushing for a Third World War against the massive Eurasian landmass – against Russia in the Ukraine and against Mainland China in Taiwan. At the very worst this will lead to global thermonuclear war; at the very best it will lead to the total defeat of the west. The so-called Ukrainian imminent “counteroffensive” will pit 200,000 Ukrainian conscripts (older men, boys and some women) against One Million highly trained and very well equipped Russian Army troops with near total Russian air superiority. The Ukrainian Air Force has lost an astounding 400 plus combat jets (with trained pilots now dead) and more than 20,000 drones in the last month alone. There are two (2) annual periods of extreme rain which make the deep & fertile soil / farmland of Eastern Europe unpassable (where most roads remain unpaved to this day) which deter mechanized and even horse-driven armies from moving. One is right now (the months of April and May) and the one before this was in November. Recall when the most massive military offensives were launched on the Eastern Front during World War Two: German Operation Barbarossa toward Moscow & Leningrad on June 22, 1941, German Case Blue toward the Volga River & Stalingrad on June 28, 1942, German Operation Citadel toward Kursk on July 5, 1943 and the Soviet Russian Operation Bagration to destroy German Army Group Center on June 22, 1944. There was a reason why these massive offensives were launched during the months of June & July……………large armies require solid unpaved roads and warm-enough weather. Needless to say that the combined losses on all sides were utterly massive beyond comprehension – 47.7 million human beings, 7.5 million army horses, 15.9 million cattle and 21.5 million sheep which were “conscripted” for military purposes. Trained dogs were often used for “suicide” missions – for detonating explosives under enemy tanks, for instance. The number of military vehicles expended (lost) such as tanks, armored fighting vehicles, self-propelled artillery pieces, trucks, cars and motorcycles were 8.1 million. Needless to say that most of the soldiers, animals, trucks, cars and motorcycles on all sides were conscripted or “confiscated” from peaceful prewar life to serve and die during wartime. Total worldwide losses & casualties during World War Two were at least 131 million human beings, 123 million animals and 22 million vehicles.
The numbers today will eventually be far worse. Note that the Ukraine had a peak human population of 52 million 30 years ago in 1993. Today, the rump dictatorial government in Kiev rules over perhaps 13 million people – a reduction of 39 million people to date.
In sum, there is only one sane and humane solution: negotiate peace and stop all war immediately and forever.
