Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (September 1, 2025)
The recently passed so-called “big beautiful bill” has net interest payments on the national debt of the USA (federal government only – does not include state & local governments, nonprofit organizations or the so-called private economy of corporations and individuals) making up an incredible 18 percent of federal government revenues. What is the rest? Here it is: Social Security (31 percent), Medicare (18 percent), National Defense = War (17 percent), and Medicaid (13 percent). This equals 97 percent. There is actually much more in many smaller programs but we would go well over 100 percent due to the annual deficit = i.e., spending much more money than we have.
What does this mean? The Western Roman Empire fell in A.D. 476, the Eastern Roman Empire fell in 1453, the Aztec Empire fell in 1521, the Inca Empire fell in 1572, the Mexican Empire fell in 1867, the French Empire fell in 1870, the Korean Empire fell in 1910, the Tsarist Russian Empire fell in 1917, Austria-Hungary fell in 1918, the Prussian-German colonial empire fell in 1920, the Ottoman Turkish Empire fell in 1922, Nazi Germany fell in 1945, the Empire of Japan fell in 1947, the USSR collapsed in 1991 and the USA is not far off.
Everyone should ignore the mouthpieces of the Administration in Washington, D.C. and the mainstream media. This YouTube channel by Michael Bordenaro normally comes out of Florida where he lives. This particular episode was recorded in Marin County, California but what he says about the current economy, employment market and real property market is one hundred percent factual and true: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rIXyAlkhRo&t=760s. Things are extremely bad (not just somewhat bad or a little bad) and they are about to get very much worse.
Yet another YouTube channel focused on the everyday plight of people struggling to make ends meet in today’s world is “A Homestead Journey.” Listen to these people describe their struggles in an unedited format: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wN2ZOAXshU0&t=11s. It is both dangerous and morally unacceptable for any society to have as many “have nots” as our society has today. It is a threat to the social order, to public safety, to the stability of government and to the freedoms we take for granted. Our priorities as a society need to be corrected.
Those who read this blog know that I do not like the idea of tariffs at all. Tariffs behave like sales taxes but as we know the rates are much worse (higher). Furthermore, those who say or believe that tariff revenue will somehow replace income tax revenue are simply wrong. The case in point is that the annual US federal deficit as of July 2025 is running at an annualized rate of USD $3.492 TRILLION per year (50 percent of total spending) – a complete disaster which merely adds to the already massive US federal debt. Another point is that increased levels of debt cause interest rates to increase and not to lower them – the greater level of debt raises risk which increases interest rates.
Tariffs now affect very many consumer goods but of course the most visible good are the biggest single ticket items such as passenger cars and light trucks. One “goal” behind implementing tariffs is to bring manufacturing activity back into the USA and/or to American-owned companies. The reality is showing this to be much like pie in the sky – something that will likely never happen. The only American carmakers left of any consequence (or size) are General Motors and Ford. They have about 30 percent of the retail vehicle market in the USA, Canada and Mexico, somewhat less in Central and South America and very much less in the rest of the world. Their global share is about 11 percent but when one includes three and two-wheelers which in the rest of the world serve as primary transportation the global market share of GM and Ford falls to merely 4 percent of the total.
American car companies reached their peak in 1947 (78 years ago) when they had 97 percent of the global market. General Motors alone had half the world market. This will never come back.
On top of this the entire global vehicle market is undergoing a massive transformation from the ICE (internal combustion engine powered by gasoline or diesel fuel) to alternative fuels mainly BEV (battery electric vehicles). BEV technology is most advanced in mainland China which is now by far the largest overall auto market on earth – as big as the USA and the European Union (EU) combined. More advanced BEV technology translates into longer range, lower production cost, lower retail prices and improved quality. Chinese domination in auto production is even more pronounced than their domination as a retail market – China manufactures as many vehicles as the USA, the European Union (EU) and Japan combined. Global BEV market share reached 25 percent in 2024 and is on track to reach 30 percent in 2025 – the forecast for 2030 is double that amount or 60 percent. Another excellent channel on YouTube which concentrates on the global auto market is “The Electric Viking” by Sam Evins out of Australia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfeHQmA8mNg.
Many of the very well-known “legacy” automakers in the USA, Europe, Japan and South Korea will likely not survive much longer – they are being passed up by manufacturers from mainland China (battery electric cars and light trucks) and India (three and two wheelers including motorized tricycles, motorcycles, scooters and bicycles).
