Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (October 1, 2017) The US stock market continues to be very robust – the Dow Jones 30 Industrials Index reached a new record nominal high of 22,420 on September 21, 2017. The NASDAQ Composite Index hit a new record nominal high of 6498 on September 29, the S&P 500 Index did likewise on the same date (2,519) and the Wilshire 5000 “Total Market Index” did so as well (26,131). Timing is the key – but it is almost impossible to do! The most difficult aspects of market forecasting include 1) timing and 2) degree (magnitude in this case) of wave strength. Elliott Wave International was established near Atlanta, Georgia in 1979 and they accurately called for the bottom of the then near term stock market which took place in 1982 – at that time, the Dow Jones 30 Industrials Index reached a level in between 700 and 800. After this happened, they attempted to forecast how long in time and how high in value a new record bull market would go. The initial forecast called for a “top” as early as 1995 and a value for the Dow as high as 5,000. This did take place, but what happened is that the Dow failed to stop so soon in both time and magnitude. The Dow and the market as a whole kept going until early 2000, when the Dow reached a nominal value of 11,700. Thereafter, a crash did indeed occur – but this was by no means the end of the story. The overall market and in particular the Dow fell to a level of 7,100 by October of 2002. After this, the market went back up once again to break new records – up to the level of Dow 14,800 by October…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (September 1, 2017) The US stock market continues to be profoundly robust – the Dow Jones 30 Industrials Index reached a new record high of 22,179 on August 8, 2017. But the breadth of this advance is narrow – large cap stocks continue to reach new records whereas the broader market does not do so. Eventually the bubble will burst, and the entire world will experience a crash like never before – regardless of political allegiance. 52 days ago I finally purchased a stake in the “Bitcoin Investment Trust” (GBTC). Online companies proved too frustrating to deal with, so I went the more traditional route – I contacted my good friend and fellow College of William and Mary Mason School of Business MBA Edward George “Ted” Kaufman. Ted is a Vice President and Financial Advisor with Scott & Stringfellow, a wholly-owned stock brokerage subsidiary of Branch Banking & Trust Company (BB&T). BB&T is ranked as high as the number 8 commercial bank in the USA with more than 2,100 offices in 15 states and the District of Columbia. Ted has been their top performing broker for more than 20 years. He is a prominent and active member of the business scene in Hampton Roads, Virginia especially in charitable and in Jewish organizations. He and his business partner Joseph Feldman (Senior VP with Scott & Stringfellow) manage the “Shalom Trust,” an investment portfolio for companies based in Israel or which have a strong link to Israel. Ted can be reached toll free at 1-800-515-0294. “Bitcoin” is of course the best known of the so-called electronic crypto-currencies, having been launched in 2010. GBTC has gained 109 percent in the last 52 days, which translates into an annualized return of 765 percent. Due to the current strength…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (July 30, 2017) The US stock market continues to be profoundly robust – the Dow Jones 30 Industrials Index reached a new record high of 21,841 on July 28, 2017. Other major indices including the NASDAQ Composite, S&P 500 as well as the Wilshire 5000 “Total Market Index” did so one day earlier on July 27, 2017. The remarkable success of Amazon.com (led by its CEO Jeff Bezos as being one of the richest people if not the richest person on earth depending upon the day) has finally attracted the notice of potential anti-trust legislation by the US Congress and of President Donald J. Trump, Sr. This after the announced purchase by Amazon.com of Whole Foods – an upscale supermarket chain which ranks among the 5 largest supermarket chains in the USA. Such anti-trust legislation has nothing to do with “wrongdoing” but with negative social mood. Something similar took place with the breakup of AT&T, banking deregulation and airline deregulation in the late 1970s and early 1980s (Presidents James Earl Carter and Ronald Wilson Reagan). Ditto with the breakup of ALCOA (Aluminum Corporation of America) during the Great Depression of the 1930s – these companies did nothing “wrong” per se other than be very big and very successful (President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The end result of such anti-trust legislation may even be bad in the long run – history will be the judge. Banking deregulation gave us much more risk, much higher service fees, many more bad loans, illegally aggressive sales marketing (ala Wells Fargo Corporation) and airline deregulation has given us much lower ticket costs albeit with much poorer service – “sardine can” coach, economy and “last class” service. Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) I was finally able to “purchase” Bitcoin in the form…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (July 2, 2017) The US stock market continues to be remarkably robust – the Dow Jones 30 Industrials Index reached a new record high of 21,535 on June 20, 2017. Greece has had four (4) financial bailouts in the course of the last eleven (11) years, and in spite of this massive subsidy of a failed country, the Greek stock market has still fallen by an astounding 90 percent since 2006. They represent the future for much of the “developed” countries. As we learned last month, the U.S. Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is already de jure bankrupt. The government of the U.S. Virgin Islands and the State of Illinois are the next candidates for bankruptcy and junk debt status. The state governments of both New Jersey and Maine have shut down due to an impasse – the failure of the executive and the legislative branches of governments to agree on how to tackle a budget crisis. Ultimately, there is no such thing as a free lunch, and both taxes and welfare benefits cannot and must not be allowed to survive at current sky high levels. Socialism, communism, Marxism, etc. destroy human initiative by having “ass backwards” incentives – they reward failure and they punish success. The rest of the world is not so stupid – countries such as Mainland China and India continue to march forward with more free market reforms. Even their high performing children are crowding American children out of Ivy League, big name and even regional state colleges and universities. The only institutions of higher learning left to American high school graduates will be minor colleges and universities, community colleges, trade schools, adult education and for-profit institutions (many of which are actually going bankrupt). Lending standards (requirements) today are weaker than…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (May 31, 2017) The biggest financial news this month is not the stock market, but the declaration of bankruptcy by the United States Commonwealth of Puerto Rico effective May 4, 2017. Puerto Rican government debt is now selling at just 65 cents on the Dollar. Puerto Rican debt was already yielding 10 percent interest per annum prior to the declaration of bankruptcy, roughly equivalent to that of Brazil – which itself has gone from being a member of the star “BRICS” bloc to being one of Latin America’s most troubled economies. This biggest American government entity declaration of bankruptcy (to date) is just the tip of the iceberg. The next state governments next in line to do likewise include Illinois, Arizona, Ohio and Nevada – and local government entities on the same list include the likes of Chicago, Dallas, Houston and El Paso. These 9 government entities in the USA (including Puerto Rico) have a total of 63 million inhabitants, or 19 percent of the entire population under American political jurisdiction. In last month’s blog, I once again discussed the current state of the global motor vehicle manufacturing industry. Today, that industry builds 151 million new units per year which is divided among 109 manufacturing holding companies. This pie is 67 percent Asian (i.e., built by Asian-based companies), 25 percent European and 8 percent American. In 1947, or just two years after the end of the Second World War, the global motor vehicle market was 92 percent American. Twenty years from today, the motor vehicle market is forecast to be 81 percent Asian, 15 percent European and just 4 percent American. Unit volume is forecast to increase to 425 million per year, with big gains especially among major emerging market players such as in…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (May 2, 2017) The employment cuts coming to the public sector of the US economy in 2017-2021 will be even more severe than reported in last month’s update. Instead of the maximum 12 million positions to be eliminated, the figure may now go as high as 18.6 million. As said so many times, the resources to staff, maintain and fund the socialist welfare state simply no longer exist. As the late Margaret Thatcher of England once said, socialism does not work because eventually, you run out of “other peoples’” money to spend. Socialism, communism, Marxism, Leninism, Stalinism, Maoism, Fascism, religious fundamentalism, crony capitalism and feudalism are all among the WORST forms of government possible. Only the true capitalist free market as articulated so clearly by Adam Smith of England will work well. The US attack on Syria is yet another ongoing mistake of American foreign policy regardless of which of the two large political parties is “in charge” in Washington – Democratic or Republican, are equally as bad. The American government, its so-called Allies around the world and the international mainstream media all claim that the Syrian government is responsible for having used chemical weaponry on their own population – propaganda we have heard in the past with respect to Iraq before “regime change” removed the government of Saddam Hussein. Both the Syrian government and the Russian government (the Russians are allied to Syria) deny having done this. All one needs to do is to study the “fruit” of “regime change” where so-called dictators have been targeted. The removal of the Shah of Iran in 1979 produced an Islamic fundamentalist regime in Tehran. The removal of Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2003 produced the horror of ISIL-ISIS-Daesh. The removal of strongmen in countries such…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (April 2, 2017) The nominal stock market is still near record high (nominal) values, but like I said in last month’s update, the purchasing power of the American Dollar has greatly diminished. One of the most astute commentators today is Mr. David Stockman, former Budget Director under the late U.S. President Ronald Wilson Reagan. Mr. Stockman points out that regardless of which of the two large U.S. political parties has a governing majority (either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party), the USA has slid so far down with respect to its massive debt burden that we have literally passed the point of no return – as Patrick Buchanan says (he is yet another veteran of the Reagan Administration), the USA is clearly becoming a Third World Country. Mr. Stockman points out that regardless of what current U.S. President Donald J. Trump wants, there will likely be no tax cut and no massive spending on necessary American infrastructure – the USA simply no longer has the resources to do these things. Even the nominal stock market is severely over-valued, and will eventually crash to the ground. Massive cuts in employment are coming to the public sector in the USA, in particular to employment on the state, county and city government levels. These cuts and consolidation will commence around June 2017 and they will not stop for a long time. Millions of current employees will be adversely affected simple because the USA has literally run out of financial resources. Circa 12 million positions are slated for elimination or “down sizing.” Socialism has never worked, it does not work today and it will never work in the future. Plainly said, Socialism is an “ass backwards” philosophy which has all the wrong incentives – it rewards failure…