Posts by Marc Nonnenkamp

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (January 1, 2024) The Dow Jones 30 Industrial Index hit a record nominal high of 37,778.85 on December 28, 2023.  According to Elliott Wave technical analysis the stock market has never been so severely overly bullish or overbought.  We can make the same statement for virtually all classes of assets including for real property (note the new video link below by Nicholas Gerli of Reventure Consulting).  The cryptocurrency market is performing no differently from the rest of the market – it is very closely correlated with the overall asset market.  In fact the cryptocurrency market is even more closely correlated with the overall global stock market, which hit a nominal peak about two years ago toward the end of 2021.  The overall global stock market is in fact still 48 percent below its record nominal high from December of 2021, and the overall cryptocurrency market is still 76 percent below its record nominal high from November of 2021.  We are witnessing nominal & real bear market retracement – this is not a real bull market. The three largest mega investment banks of Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street own fully 80 percent of the S&P 500 corporations and 60 percent of American real estate (commercial and residential real property). The effects of the global pandemic hyperinflation are also not leaving us.  The overall cost of living has more than doubled in just two short years.  In the USA, fully 78 percent of families rent their residences as opposed to own them or owe a mortgage on them.  More than 8.2 percent of the American population is comprised of illegal migrants – one out of every 12 people now in the United States of America.  All of the above trends represent a very real and present…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (December 1, 2023) The so-called “mainstream media” says almost nothing about it, but the old order as we have known it is now in the process of crumbling to the ground.  If the powers-that-be tell us something, we can be assured that the actual truth is the opposite of what they say.  We are told that the economy is doing well.  It is not.  We are told that the labor market is strong and robust.  It is not.  The cost of living has been inflated due to the central banking system creating “credit” out of thin air, and due to governments (especially in the USA) spending money which does not exist.  The levels of debt of all types which now exist are beyond anything ever seen in recorded history.  The same is true for prices – especially for asset prices of all types of assets.  The cost of borrowing cannot and will not go down until this debt disappears, and that will be utterly difficult as “deflation” is historically even more painful and destructive compared to “inflation.”  Elliott Wave International recently posted two (2) good articles / videos about historical interest rates.  The first video discusses the cost of borrowing (i.e. interest rates) going back 5,000 years:  https://www.elliottwave.com/Interest-Rates/Interest-Rates-What-a-5000-Year-Chart-Suggests-is-Next?utm_source=com&utm_medium=eml&utm_campaign=ar-frup&utm_content=frupbsinterestrates231116. The second video discusses the cost of borrowing going back 700 years:  https://www.elliottwave.com/Social-Mood/Mood-Riffs-Interest-Rates-from-1300s-Through-Today-What-History-Teaches-Us?rcn=231119socez&utm_source=com&utm_medium=eml&utm_campaign=ar-frup&utm_content=231119socez. Endless War Just as the old Roman Empire fell, so will every empire eventually fall.  We are witnessing this collapse in real time in the USA and with its “military industrial” complex in the form of the so-called “North Atlantic Treaty Organization” (NATO).  The old Austro-Hungarian Empire (1867-1918) was itself a successor state to the “Holy Roman Empire of the German Nation” (800-1806) – which was itself an attempt to restore old Rome…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (November 1, 2023) The mainstream media does not report this in the USA or other western countries, but the Ukrainian Army has lost a staggering 12,000 tanks since the ground war in the eastern and southern Ukraine commenced in February 2022 – much of what used to exist in the active duty and reserve forces of the NATO countries before they were shipped to the Ukraine.  Furthermore, there are reports of a newly surrounded (entirely encircled by the Russian Army) contingent of 200,000 Ukrainian troops (largely untrained conscripts, older men, younger men & boys and even women).  Russian Army forces in the region number anywhere from 750,000 to 1.2 million well-trained, well-equipped and well-led men.  The number of other troops and reservists in the entirety of Russia may be has high as 20 million men.  The number of active duty, reservist and militia forces in Russia’s ally Mainland China may be as high as 110 million men and women. The war in the so-called “Holy Land” (Israel, the Golan Heights and the occupied left over Palestinian lands of the West Bank of the Jordan River & the Gaza Strip which borders the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula) now looks to be a bona fide prelude to World War 3.  The Arab-Israeli Conflict dates back to May 15, 1948 (the founding of the modern State of Israel).  In between then and October 7, 2023 cumulative casualties were 25,343 on the Israeli and 91,105 on the Arab side.  Since October 7, 2023 we have already seen casualty counts up to 7,147 on the Israeli and 36,275 on the Arab side with refugee counts up to 500,000 on the Israeli and 1.4 million on the Arab side (one out of 6 Arabs in the Holy Land).  The countries or…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (October 1, 2023) The standard of living in today’s America is actually lower compared to what it was during the Great Depression of 1929 to 1949: https://prepareforchange.net/2023/09/12/we-definitely-are-in-the-great-depression-they-just-want-to-make-us-think-were-not/.  During the Great Depression, a home cost 3 times the average salary, today a home costs 8 times the average salary.  An automobile cost 46 percent of an average annual salary 90 years ago, today that cost is 85 percent.  12 months of rent cost 16 percent of annual salary in the 1930s, today that is up to 42 percent. America long had one of the highest rates of home ownership in the entire world – today, it has one of the lowest rates.  100 million of 129 million US households are renter households, or 78 percent of the total.  And of the 22 percent “homeowners” average equity is much lower than it used to be – no more than 38 percent in 2011.  Furthermore, 44 percent of existing homeowners are using their home much like an ATM (Automated Teller Machine) by doing things like refinancing, taking out a home equity line of credit (HELOC) or older people above age 62 doing a reverse mortgage.  This “credit” is being used for things like expensive home remodeling, student loan debt, auto debt, medical debt, credit card debt or taking trips / vacations…………………NOT a good idea. Yet another “elephant in the room” is ESG debt.  “ESG” stands for “Environmental, Social and Governance” and is of course being pushed by the likes of the WEF (“World Economic Forum” led by Klaus Schwab in Switzerland) – they are behind much of the blatant lies behind “climate change, global warming and destructive / divisive / dishonest woke politics.”  The loss in ESG bond debt to date is a staggering USD $18 TRILLION…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (September 1, 2023) Everywhere one looks, one can see evidence of the USA and the western world crumbling.  Ignore whatever you see or hear on mainstream media, because absolutely nothing of what they say is true.  More countries continue to move ever further away from the American Dollar.  The recent BRICS summit in South Africa saw 6 countries join the original 5 members for a new total of 11 nations which control an impressive 80 percent of the entire world’s crude oil market.  Note that natural gas, natural gas byproducts and coal are found wherever crude oil is found – these are necessary and valuable resources which will never disappear.  An additional 14 nations are waiting in the wings to join the BRICS 11 and many more countries attended the summit as observers. At least 19 European countries are refusing to supply the criminal dictatorship in Kiev with support, which is a small step in the right direction – no country should be supplying them with anything other than humanitarian aid, and even that is highly questionable given their extreme level of corruption (because any aid will never reach its intended beneficiaries).  Zelensky’s mother-in-law recently spent USD $4.8 million on a villa in Egypt.  This disgusting robbery of US taxpayer money is much like Hunter Biden recently renting a brand new home in Malibu, California for USD $15,800 per month. Bobby Kennedy, Jr. (one of the very few honest Democrats left) recently highlighted the fact that the massive investment banking houses of Blackrock (based in New York), Vanguard (based in Pennsylvania) and State Street (based in Boston) now control / own 88 percent of all corporations listed on the S&P 500 and a whopping 60 percent of American real estate.  This is the reason…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (August 1, 2023) If we step back and view the world unlike the 100 percent dishonest mainstream media does, we realize that our world is in very big trouble due to completely corrupt “leadership.”  Our cost of living is too high, our labor market is not healthy and our standard of living is dropping like a rock.  Case in point: there are 129 million households in the USA with an average 2.57 people per household.  There are 100 million “renter” households in the USA, which tells us that so-called “home ownership” has also fallen like a rock: 78 percent renter households versus 22 percent of households with a mortgage (the usual situation) or outright ownership with no mortgage (the ideal situation). Asset prices remain severely inflated – global stock markets are a valid case in point.  The total number of publicly traded corporations worldwide (companies in which anyone can purchase stock through a stock broker) is now a mere 7,700 or so: https://companiesmarketcap.com/.  In other words, investors are chasing ever fewer companies as they invest their monies – mostly their retirement savings in the form of pension plans, 401 K plans or IRAs (individual retirement accounts).  They are paying absolutely massive “premiums” over what privately held companies report in their annual reports. Nevertheless, the stalling global economy is finally affecting the most visible parts of the economy – real estate sales and automotive sales.  Year over year compared to July 2022, residential real estate prices in the USA have finally fallen by more than 11 percent, and retail automobile prices have finally fallen by 10 percent:  https://prepareforchange.net/2023/07/25/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-home-prices-drop-the-most-year-over-year-in-over-a-decade/?fbclid=IwAR0poJ_Q8cm7nsabpW_jw5EkGCQGwnzVOod_rFPq0Fbsf8Vgw4bSxVnxn5c. Many so-called “democracies” in the western world are in fact no longer “free” societies – they are “crony capitalist” countries with major political parties following a common…

Financial, Economic and Social Mood Update (July 1, 2023) This recent video from Elliott Wave International of Atlanta clearly and graphically illustrates just how weak the American economy and employment market are today – job openings or “help wanted” are now at historically low levels regardless of what is reported in the so-called “mainstream media”:  https://www.elliottwave.com/Economy/Have-You-Seen-This-Chart-About-US-Job-Openings?utm_source=com&utm_medium=eml&utm_campaign=ar-cotd&utm_content=cotdrfjobopenings230531. Yet another disturbing trend in the economy is the fact that brand new real estate costs significantly more to build than it is worth to sell in today’s market.  Commercial real estate in the USA already has an astounding 50 percent vacancy rate, and in the residential real estate market this figure is 14 percent.  The latter figure is largely due to the fact that many more affluent people have more than one residential property, and that they have no desire to rent those additional properties.  In any case, building material & labor costs are such that all real estate cost much more to construct than it is really worth – this holds true for high-end real estate all the way down to so-called “affordable” housing.  If you purchase a good insurance policy for your property, you should notice that the entire “blanket” policy is worth much more than the actual property is worth.  You will need this coverage in case of emergency, disaster or tragedy because it will cost much more to rebuild the same property from scratch – more than the property is actually worth.  For modestly priced homes this “surcharge” will be from 30 to 40 percent more than the property is actually worth.  For high-end real estate the same “surcharge” will be much more – say up to 200 percent more than the property is worth.  To make a long story short, this tells us that this is NOT a…